Recent allegations against the Republican nominee for the Senate, Roy Moore, have pushed the special election in Alabama from a probable Republican victory to a toss-up. The scandal, which broke earlier this month, detailed accounts of now eight women who were allegedly sexually harassed by Moore. Since then, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, Doug Jones, has seen an increase in his poll numbers and political analysts are now asking the question of whether or not a Democrat can feasibly win in the ruby red state of Alabama.
Past Election Results And Polls
The last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Alabama was in 1992 with Senator Richard Shelby who won by a margin of 64.8% to 33.1%. In 1994, however, Shelby switched to the Republican party and is currently still serving in the Senate. Elections in Alabama since ‘92 haven’t been so kind to Democrats: they’ve lost Presidential races in that state by margins of 15% to 27%, with senate and gubernatorial races taking on a similar form.
Most polls from September to early November showed Republican candidate Moore ahead of Democratic candidate Jones by high single to low double digits. The polls which showed Jones and Moore in a deadlock were outliers in a sea of data which showed a GOP hold on the state. This isn’t very much of a surprise as Alabama has consistently been a stronghold for the Republican party in the last 20 years, and its demographics don’t allow much room for change. Over 70% of Alabama’s population is white, while only 26% are african-american. Nationally, 58% of white voters align more with the GOP while only 37% align with the Democratic party, while 88% of african-american voters support the Democrats compared to only 8% for the GOP. These numbers heavily favor the GOP in Alabama, making any Democrat’s victory a difficulty based on the demographics alone.
The Implications of the Scandal and New Polls
Once the allegations against Moore broke, including one harassment claim by a minor at the time, it appeared the race might move in an entirely new direction. In response, dozens of GOP lawmakers pulled their endorsements from Moore. The most significant denouncements of Moore came from the GOP establishment: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senator Cory Gardner, Vice President Mike Pence, as well as other prominent members such as Senators John McCain, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake, who went as far as to say he would vote for the Democrat if he were an Alabama voter. Despite members of the Senate abandoning Moore, Alabama republicans have a negative opinion of the GOP establishment wing, and the lack of endorsements will likely have little impact on the larger electorate of the state.
More recent polling has shown a change in the minds of Alabama voters. New polls report Doug Jones ahead of Moore by as much as 8 points, while others show a slight Jones advantage, a toss-up, or a slight Moore advantage. This data is good news for Jones as it shows a shift in either the Republican or undecided base against Moore. The election is still three weeks away, meaning these polls may change over time as voters either forget about the scandal or other unforeseen events unfold.
What Jones would need to win in Alabama
Evidence in this year’s special elections have all pointed to a political environment which favors the Democrats, as evidenced in major victories in the Virginia House of Delegates and Virginia Governor race, strong results in special House elections, and other down ballot races. The generic ballot poll which asks likely voters who they would vote for in an election with a generic Democratic candidate vs a generic Republican candidate show strong signs of a Democratic “wave”, where Democrats beat Republicans by a margin of 7% to 15%. Additionally, Trump has the lowest approval rating for any President who has served less than a year in office: the President has an average approval rating of 39%. Despite all these signs pointing to a strong showing by Democrats in the 2018 midterms, flipping a state that has consistently gone for the Republicans by double digits is no easy task, and until a few weeks ago, seemed an unattainable fantasy for the Democratic party.
Despite the Moore Scandal, some Republican voters are still defending Moore, while others are begrudgingly voting for him to ensure the Republicans maintain their slim majority in order to pass their Tax Reform initiative and other campaign promises made by the party. Moderate Republicans are less likely to hold their nose, and that is where Jones has a shot at victory.
If moderate Republicans or Conservatives, outraged by Moore’s scandal, refuse to vote for the GOP nominee, Jones has a chance to win. If there is depressed turnout on the Republicans side, Jones’s coalition of millenials, African Americans, other registered Democrats, and moderate Republicans could squeak by with just enough turnout and support to narrowly beat Moore.
Moore has never concealed his paleoconservative side - a “Bannonite” who follows the anti-establishment, nationalistic, ideology of former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon. He’s repeatedly attacked Republicans such as Mitch McConnell and has alienated himself from the moderate base of the party. If these moderate Republicans switch over to Doug Jones, they pad his coalition of normally Democratic voters which can allow him to reach a plurality of votes and secure a victory over Moore.
Another possible election scenario is one where moderate Republicans and disgruntled Conservatives refuse to vote for either candidate, instead opting to write-in someone such as incumbent Senator Luther Strange, who had lost the Republican primary to Roy Moore. In this case, a three-way race between Moore, Jones, and write-in Strange, would leave Jones with some chance to win, but still slim. Before the scandal, Jones had a polling average of around 41%, whereas Moore had an average of around 50%. After the allegations, both Moore and Jones have been polling at approximately 45%. These numbers shifted most likely due to Republicans switching sides, but if a write-in candidate, such as Strange, were added into the equation, we can expect Jones’s numbers to maintain at close to 41% (his base before the scandal), and Moore’s numbers remaining at about 45% (his base after the scandal), with a write-in getting maybe 10% or more, but not enough to win. The only way in which Jones could win in this scenario would be by courting enough undecideds onto his side in order to narrowly beat Moore.
In both scenarios, a Jones upset is a toss-up and this race remains incredibly tight. Assuming no other scandals break and no write-in campaign begins, Jones has only a few options in pulling off an upset in the race.
As was mentioned earlier, Moore may lose support from moderate Republicans and other Conservatives, but those votes can only help Jones so much. In order to get more votes than Moore, Jones has to rile up his coalition in order to maximize turnout to beat his opponent.
There is a large african-american population in Alabama which gives Jones an advantage in the race, but the challenge is getting them to turnout in large numbers. Turnout may be depressed in these voters, or not as high as Jones needs them to be, which poses problems for his campaign. This demographic is key to his victory: with them, he doesn’t automatically win but without them he automatically loses. Jones has been targeting areas with a sizeable african-american population in order to drive up voter registration numbers before the deadline of November 27th. Part of Jones’s campaign message to these voters has been to highlight his career as an attorney for Alabama who prosecuted two members of the KKK who killed four African-American girls in a church bombing. Jones’s goal is to contrast his work and time in public service with Moore’s time in which he was removed twice as a member of the Alabama Supreme Court for defying the law - once for failing to remove the ten commandments from a public area and another for failing to follow the Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage.
The second demographic Jones has been attempting to capture is the millennial/student vote. Often considered a shoe-in for Democrats, Millenials don’t always turnout in elections, especially special and midterm elections where there is generally less participation from the electorate as a whole. Jones has targeted college campuses to drive up registration. The key to his victory rests upon millenials and students getting out to vote.
Jones’s coalition of voters, as shown above, is instrumental in his success. If there is high turnout from african american voters, millennials and students, and a few traditionally republican voters, there’s a chance he can win the race and turn ruby red to light blue.
