On Tuesday, November 6th, 2018, voters will go to the polls to cast their votes deciding the fate of thirty four senate seats and 435 House seats. The midterms are infamously a period of time where there is substantially less voter turnout compared to presidential elections (voter turnout reached 58% in 2008 and 55% in 2012 presidential years, compared to midterm elections with voter turnout of 41% in 2010 and 36% in 2014) and are n generally beneficial to the opposing party. The reason midterms are advantageous to the party out of power is because these elections usually serve as a check on the majority party if the President is fairly unpopular or simply not popular enough to excite their base to turnout in elections.
The 2018 Midterm Elections are being closely watched for a multitude of reasons, primarily to measure the political environment as well as the President’s popularity. In the 2006 Midterm Elections, Democrats experienced a “wave”, or surge in political power, by retaking the House for the first time in a decade and retaking the Senate under George W Bush’s presidency. Similarly, in 2010, Republicans took back the House with an overwhelming majority and weakened the healthy Democratic majority from 57 seats to 51 seats during Obama’s presidency. There is past precedent of the parties out of party taking back a large control of Congress if the President is unpopular and the base is motivated - luckily for Democrats, they meet both of these conditions going into the 2018 midterms.
The 2018 Midterm at a Glance
The 2018 midterms elections are shaping up to be a matter of concern for both the Democrats and Republicans. In order to retake the House from Republicans, Democrats would need to pick up 24 seats, 23 of which Hillary Clinton beat Trump in 2016. The Generic Ballot Poll, which asks those surveyed who they would support between a generic Democrat and generic Republican, has consistently shown a polling edge favoring the Democrats by an average of an 8-10 point lead, showing signs of a Democratic “wave” (an election where one party makes significant gains in either the House, Senate, or both). In the Senate election, Democrats must defend 25 senate seats (including Senator Al Franken’s seat which will be up in 2018 as a special election), while Republicans only need to defend eight Senate seats. In those 25 Democratic senate seats, ten Senators are in states Donald Trump won in 2016, and five are in states Donald Trump won by 18% or more. The Democrats face a daunting task of winning all their seats as well as winning two more seats from the Republicans to take control of the Senate (51 senators). In the following graph, you’ll find the states with senate seats up for reelection, who currently holds those seats, and by what margin Donald Trump won the state in 2016.
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| The "State" column is the state's which will be holding Senate elections in 2018, the "Incumbent Party" column is which party currently holds the seat as of December 2017, and the "Trump Margin of Victory" column is the percent by which Trump won (or lost) to Clinton. |
The 2018 Senate Races - Advantages and Disadvantages for The Democrats
Democrats have a significant amount of seats to defend in states Trump won, with the added burden of winning an additional two seats currently held by Republicans. That said, Democrats do have a few advantages to offset their challenges.
Advantages:
Despite Democrats controlling 10 senate seats in Trump States, they have popular incumbents. Their candidates in these states were elected because they know their state’s culture well and vote on more conservative legislation than the rest of the Democratic caucus. Paired with a popular incumbency, Democrats have performed strongly in many special elections in 2017. Democratic candidates have managed to turn out their base, while the GOP has significantly lagged behind in getting their base to vote. If this trend continues in the 2018 Midterm Elections, which it most likely will, Democrats will be in a position of strength when competing in “swing states” such as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and many others with Democratic incumbents facing reelection in 2018. In non incumbent states, specifically Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas, Democrats have begun the recruitment for powerful competitors who areable to compete in these red states. This turnout can only be so effective, however, and won’t be of much help in states such as Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. The Congressional Ballot polling,mentioned previously, is predictive of a large Dem victory (8-10 points); this is a good indication of the political environment, which shows the Democrats are favored. Independents are supporting Democrats more than Republicans, and the Democratic base is very supportive of their own party. Finally, the last big advantage for the Democrats is Trump’s unpopularity. Trump’s favorability hovers around 37%, while 57% of the population disapproves of him. If Democrats can focus not only on policy, but also the voter’s disapproval of the President, they’ll be able to keep Republican turnout low enough that Democratic turnout can eclipse them enough to assure safe victories for the party.
Disadvantages:
The greatest disadvantage for the Democrats lies in the large number of states they must defend. Republicans will be targeting all ten of the states Trump won, forcing Democratic resources to split among these states leaving the others under-funded. Furthermore, in the most vulnerable Democratic seats, losing even one makes the chances of retaking the Senate significantly more complicated. As it stands, Republicans hold 51 seats to the Democrats 49 seats (two of which, Senators Angus King and Bernie Sanders are independents who “caucus”, or support, the Democratic party), meaning any loss in the Democrats seats would dramatically decrease their chance of a majority.
The 2018 Senate Races - Advantages and Disadvantages for the Republicans
Currently, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 51 seats in the senate. They can afford to lose one more seat in order to maintain their majority, as Vice President Mike Pence would break the 50-50 tie in favor of Republicans.
Advantages:
Republicans have a straightforward path to guarding their majority. Out of the eight senate seats they’re defending, only one (Nevada) voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Arizona favored Trump by only 3%, while the other six voted for trump by nine points or more. If the GOP were to win all their seats, minus Nevada, they would still control the Senate. The Republicans can further expand their majority by targeting the ten states Trump won in 2016. The political environment is very bad for the Republicans right now, but they have incumbents in very safe seats, and if they focus all their resources on a few seats, it makes the Democrat’s chances of taking back the senate much more difficult.
Disadvantages:
The same advantages of the Democrats are major disadvantages for the Republicans: a political environment and strong polling favoring the Democrats, Trump’s low favorability ratings, and the strength of the Democratic candidates. Republicans must overcome their own legislative failures, which include failing to pass an Obamacare repeal bill, despite controlling Congress and the Presidency, and passing an unpopular tax cut. A divisive agenda will hurt turnout for the Republicans, while providing Democrats the incentive they needed to mobilize and vote.
The same advantages of the Democrats are major disadvantages for the Republicans: a political environment and strong polling favoring the Democrats, Trump’s low favorability ratings, and the strength of the Democratic candidates. Republicans must overcome their own legislative failures, which include failing to pass an Obamacare repeal bill, despite controlling Congress and the Presidency, and passing an unpopular tax cut. A divisive agenda will hurt turnout for the Republicans, while providing Democrats the incentive they needed to mobilize and vote.
In the following weeks and months, I’ll be focusing on six “toss-up” races: Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia, all states which could either go for the Democrats or the Republicans, and will decide the majority for 2019-2021.
