With the 2018 Midterms concluded, and the final outcomes of a Democratic House and Republican Senate confirmed, it’s time to start looking at the 2020 Senate map.
The first, and most important facet to note about the senate map, is the geographic makeup of the incumbents. As opposed to the 2018 Senate Map, Democrats must defend only 12 Senate seats, instead of the 22 seats they defended in the midterms. Republicans, on the other hand, will now be defending 22 seats as opposed to the eight seats they had to defend in the midterms. With that said, Democrats had to defend 10 seats in 2018 in states won by President Trump in 2016, but now have to defend only Alabama, which Democrat Doug Jones won in the December 2017 Special Election. Republicans must defend the Nevada Senate seat in 2018, won by Clinton in 2016, and ended up losing this seat. In 2020, Republicans will be forced to defend two Clinton-won Senate seats: Colorado and Maine. Though the battlelines are more evenly divided in this cycle, Republicans still have the benefit of defending 20 other seats Trump won, making the Democrats’ path to a majority - assuming they don’t win the Presidency - a difficult task of winning a net of four seats.
The second key distinction between the 2018 Midterms and the 2020 Senate elections is that the elections will take place concurrently with the Presidential Elections. Taking 2016 as an example, Republicans won all Senate seats up for re-election in states Trump won, while Democrats won all Senate seats up for re-election Clinton won. Though this wasn’t the case in 2012 and 2008, the state of the nation is more partisan than in those two elections, and based off 2018 Senate results, this era of strict party-line support in elections has yet to be disproven. The Presidential Election will, without a doubt, become a major factor in deciding who controls the balance of the Senate in 2020.
Though generic ballot and individual polls have yet to be released, and for good reason as the election was less than a month ago, Trump’s approval rating continues to be underwater. The President’s approval ranges between 40-45% in most polls, averaging around 43%, while 53% disapprove of Trump’s performance in office. Though his approval is slightly higher than it was a month ago, right before the midterms, it’s still too low for an incumbent President seeking reelection. It’s important to note, too, Democrats won the popular vote for the House by around 53% - the same number as his approval rating - and a margin of victory of around 8%. The Presidential Election is still closer to a toss-up than to a “leaning Democrat” status when considering other factors yet to crystalize until the primary season begins. Trump’s own victory, or loss, in Senate seats up in 2020 will be a substantial indicator as to who will win the chamber.
With all that said, here are my official ratings for the 2020 Senate Elections as it stands now. Please note there is a lot that will change between now and November of 2020, and my ratings will be updated consistently. For now, these are my opinions based on the partisan lean of states, their incumbents, and the potential for competitive opponents.
You’ll find there are four toss-ups (purple color): Colorado (R), Arizona (Special election - R), Alabama (D), and North Carolina (R). Along with these, Maine (R), Georgia (R), and Iowa (R) are Lean Republican seats (light red), and are most likely to eventually become competitive in the future. Senate seats up in Montana (R), Kansas (R), Texas (R), Kentucky (R), Alaska (R), West Virginia (R), Montana (D), Michigan (D), and New Hampshire (D) are either Likely Republican (dark red) or Likely Democrat (light blue), meaning they have the potential to become competitive should strong opposing candidates challenge incumbents, but it’s likelier than not the incumbent will be victorious. All remaining states fall into the Solid Republican (darkest red) or Solid Democrat (dark blue) column, whereby regardless of opposing candidate the incumbent will most likely not lose.
