Can Democrats Win These Republican Seats in 2020?

In the last post, I wrote about the four states that are toss-ups for both the Democrats and Republicans, while in this post I'll be talking about the seats that are Lean Republican. That is, the seats that, for now, seem to be more winnable for the Republicans than for the Democrats. These Senate seats are in three states: Georgia, Iowa, and Maine. All three are currently held by Republican Senators, but each seat is vulnerable to become a competitive race by 2020. In this post, I’ll quickly run through the reasons why these seats are not yet toss-ups, but what can make them competitive in the election.

Georgia - Sen. David Perdue

Republican David Perdue isn’t too well known of a Republican, and can be described as “rank and file”, meaning he often falls in line with how his party, or McConnell, wants him to vote. Perdue has voted with President Trump’s positions 95.7% of the time while in the Senate, so there’s little question he’ll be drawing on his support for the President in his re-election. Though Perdue won his election in Georgia in 2014 by a little under 8% of the vote, Trump won Georgia by a bit over 5% in 2016. Recent statewide elections in Georgia, such as the gubernatorial election in 2018, where Democrat Stacey Abrahams lost by under 2%, or around fifty thousand votes, have also shown that Georgia is becoming more competitive for Democrats.

Perdue starts with an advantage, the first being he’s a Republican in Georgia in a Presidential election year, where GOP turnout will be strong, and that he’s got over $1.5 million in cash. His biggest disadvantage is Georgia is no longer a safe Republican state, and he’ll have to put up a tough fight to win reelection. With that said, not many Democrats could push Georgia over the top. The Democratic candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, has the best chance at beating Perdue if she were to run, and would most certainly push this race into a “toss-up”. But without her candidacy, Georgia, at this point, is still in the Republican’s column.

Iowa - Sen. Joni Ernst

Senator Ernst starts out as a strong Trump supporter, having voted with him 91.5% of the time. Though Iowa is still in many ways a swing state, it’s grown more Republican since 2012. Ernst won her Senate race in 2014 with 8% of the vote, while Trump won the state by 9.4% in 2016. Most recently, Democrat Fred Hubbell lost by under 3% of the vote to incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds. Though Hubbell lost narrowly, 2018 was a wave year for Democrats, and the race showed the party may still have some trouble performing well in statewide elections in Iowa.

The brightline for Democrats, however, is that Ernst isn’t too popular of a Senator, with a net approval of +3%. President Trump’s trade wars with China have also had a substantial impact on Iowa farmers and the state’s economy. If these conditions hold, the strain of the trade wars and the simultaneous Presidential election may put Ernst in a difficult spot in terms of her support for Donald Trump.

There are several strong contenders for the Democrats, such as current Representatives Cindy Axne or Abby Finkenauer, and other high-profile former statewide officials. This state has the ability to fall into the “toss-up” category, but for now, remains as a Lean Republican seat for Ernst.

Maine - Sen. Susan Collins

Susan Collins is the second Republican this cycle that is running in a state that Hillary Clinton won. Though Hillary Clinton won Maine in 2016 by around 3%, a much lower margin than President Obama’s in 2012, Governor Janet Mills won her election in Maine by a little under 8%. But Susan Collins has managed to carve out a name for herself as a moderate Republican, and in return she won her election in 2014 by 37 points, an outstanding victory in a very Republican year. Though 2020 won’t be nearly the same political environment as 2014, it’s a strong indication of Collins’ support. Furthermore, her approval rating is strong, with a net approval of 15%.

But her support of President Trump, having voted with him 72.3% of the time, as well as her decisive votes on Justice Kavanaugh, pose potential problems in galvanizing Democrats against her. Around $3.7 million have been raised against Collins with Democrat grassroots funding against her re-election, but Collins similarly has an advantage in fundraising as Republican Chuck Grassley pledged to raise $3 million for her re-election. Though there are a few potentially strong candidates, such as former NSA and former US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, there aren’t too many strong opponents who I believe could unseat her in an easy race. Regardless, once there is a confirmed nominee, and depending on the national environment, this seat could very well end up as a toss-up.

The Bottom Line

As mentioned in the last post, Democrats need to win three seats and the Presidency or four seats while losing the Presidency to retake the Senate in November 2020. Control of the Senate means control over Presidential cabinet and judicial appointments, including the Supreme Court. For Democrats, they’ll need to go on the offense to pick up these seats. And while they aren’t the easiest seats to win, they are within Democratic reach should the right candidates run and challenge the incumbents. I personally believe the best chances of victory are in Maine and Iowa, while Georgia has the potential to be taken from the Republicans. But, in all cases, the road ahead will be challenging for Democrats.

What Are the Toss-Ups in the 2020 Election and Why?

The four most important races in the 2020 election cycle boil down into four competitive seats: Alabama, Colorado, North Carolina, and Arizona. Three of those seats are held by Republican senators, while the Alabama seat is held by a Democrat. In this post, I’ll quickly run through the reasons why these seats are toss-ups so early in the cycle. 

Alabama - Sen. Doug Jones

Democrat Doug Jones pulled off an upset victory by a margin of around 1.5% against scandal-plagued Republican Roy Moore in the December 2017 special election. The election was held because former Senator Jeff Sessions was appointed Attorney General of the United States, though on November 7th he resigned from the position. Jones managed to win 92% of Hillary Clinton’s votes, while Roy Moore only received 49% of Trump’s votes. Senator Jones has voted with Trump’s position 50% of the time, making him the fourth most conservative Senator in the Senate Democratic caucus. 

Unfortunately for Jones, the 538 vote tracker would necessitate Jones to have voted with Trump at least 86.6% of the time. Though there are exceptions to a red state Democrat with a lower Trump voting score than would be expected to win his race, such as Joe Manchin or Jon Tester, the other four red-state Democrats who lost in 2018 all had lower Trump voting scores than would be expected. It should be no surprise, then, that a state that voted for Trump in 2016 by almost 28% of the vote will be an uphill climb for Democrats. Jones has a positive approval rating of +13%, but in a Presidential year like 2020, it will be very difficult for Jones to match Trump’s share of the vote. 

One possible candidate rumored to be running is former Senator Jeff Sessions, who Doug Jones replaced in the Senate. Though the GOP primary is sure to be contentious, and Trump may opt to support another more conservative politician in the mold of Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions would be in a good position to challenge Doug Jones for his old seat. 

Depending on who the candidate is, and what polling will tell us later on in the cycle, I highly expect this race to go into the “Lean Republican” column. Should a scandal-plagued candidate or very conservative candidate win the primary, it’s likely this seat will remain a toss-up. 

Arizona - Sen. Martha McSally

Martha McSally, now the incumbent Junior Senator from Arizona, was appointed to her position in late December after news that Senator Jon Kyl, who replaced McCain in the Senate, would be resigning. McCain won his seat in 2016 by a margin of around 13% - a large overperformance over Trump’s 3.5% margin. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema beat Republican Martha McSally by 2.4% in the 2018 midterms - an almost 6% swing from the 2016 Presidential results, indicating this race will be very contentious and close. 

I expect the likely Republican candidates in the primary to be similar to the 2018 primary: Martha McSally and Kelli Ward. Other high profile Arizonian Republicans, such as former Governor Fife Symington, may also run, but expect this primary to be a conflict between moderates and hardliners. 

The Democratic primary, too, will be quite contentious since Arizona is now a much closer swing state than it once was several years ago. High profile potential candidates include astronaut Mark Kelly, former Republican Attorney General Grant Woods, or Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, who unsuccessfully ran against McCain in 2016, but won Martha McSally’s house seat in 2018. 

Regardless of which candidate is chosen - barring any scandals or extreme candidates - the Arizona special election will be a tight race. 

Colorado - Sen. Cory Gardner

Colorado is the bluest state in the toss-up category, and the most vulnerable seat Republicans must defend in 2020. Clinton won this state with around 5% of the vote, while Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won his seat by 5.7% of the vote in the same year. In the 2018 gubernatorial election in Colorado, Democrat Jared Polis beat his opponent by 10.6% of the vote. Incumbent Senator Cory Gardner beat Mark Udall in 2014 by 1.9%, a very strong year for Republicans overall. Gardner has a net approval of 2%, with an overall approval rating of only 39% in his state. 

Any Democratic candidate will make this seat competitive, though Gardner will prove to be a formidable opponent and the reason why this seat is a toss-up at this point. Three Democrats have already announced their intention to run: Derrick Blanton, Lorena Garcia, and Dustin Leitzel. Though none of them have held elected office in the past. Possible candidates include John Hickenlooper, the former Governor of Colorado, as well as other high profile Democratic politicians. 

North Carolina - Sen. Thom Tillis 

Republican Thom Tillis beat Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan by a narrow 1.5% in 2014, and he’s up for reelection once again. President Trump also won the state in 2016 by a margin of 3.6%, slightly higher than Romney’s 2.2% win in 2012. In the same year Trump carried the state, Senator Richard Burr won reelection with 5.7% of the vote, while Governor Pat McCrory lost to Roy Cooper by a very narrow .2%. Though North Carolina is a definite swing state, as these results indicate, it also skews slightly towards the Republicans’ favor. 

Incumbent Thom Tillis has voted with Trump 95% of the time, much higher than what would be expected based on Trump’s slim victory in the state. Though the incumbency advantage is on Tillis’s side, his re-election will be a challenge against any decent to strong Democratic candidate who wins the primary. The 2020 election, too, will be a deciding factor in this race - should Trump lose the state, I believe Tillis would as well, and vice-versa. 

The Bottom Line 

Democrats need to win three seats and the Presidency or four seats while losing the Presidency to retake the Senate in November 2020. Control of the Senate means control over Presidential cabinet and judicial appointments, including the Supreme Court. The stakes are high for Democrats, especially considering they are defending one toss-up in a very conservative state (Alabama), while going on the offense in Colorado, North Carolina, and Arizona. The best pick-up opportunity for the Democrats is Colorado, while the results in Arizona and North Carolina will largely ride on the coattails of the Presidential election.