Can A Democrat Win in Arizona?

Senator Jeff Flake (R)

Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, another one of the eight Republican Senators up for reelection in the 2018 Midterms, made a similar decision to Tennessee Senator Bob Corker: he decided not to seek reelection. Like Corker, Flake faced an uphill primary battle against former State Senator Kelli Ward, as well as cold relations with President Trump. The stakes are particularly high in this race; incumbency is a very powerful tool in elections, especially for the Senate, and without an incumbent in Arizona, a powerful Democratic challenger could win the once very conservative, but now swing state.

Arizona was once an incredibly strong Republican stronghold, but has recently begun to shift into the next key battleground state The state is home to notable conservatives, such as former Senator and Republican Presidential nominee (1964) Barry Goldwater, and of course Senator and former Presidential nominee (2008) John McCain. McCain and Romney easily won the state in the 2008 and 2012 elections respectively, each winning with a 9% margin.

While these results may not indicate Arizona as a swing state, it’s crucial to note the 2012 Arizona Senate race, and 2016 Presidential race. Current Senator Jeff Flake only narrowly won his race in 2012, garnering only 49.2% of the vote, while his Democratic opponent, Richard Carmona, won 46.2% of the vote in a year when Romney won around 53.5% of the vote and Obama 44.5%. The 2012 Senate election speaks volumes to the changing political lean of Arizona, where, without an incumbent, a strong Democratic candidate could potentially outperform a Republican adversary.

In 2016, midway through the General Election campaign, polls indicated the race in Arizona would be much closer than many anticipated. The Clinton campaign then began to devote resources to build the state’s “Get Out the Vote” (GOTV) efforts. While Secretary Clinton lost the seat, President Trump’s margin was a little over 3.5%. For comparison, Trump won North Carolina – a renowned swing state - by a little more than 3.6%. Without an incumbent in the 2018 Midterm race in Arizona, a potential blue wave, and a strong Democratic candidate, Arizona could very well swing to give Democrats the seat they desperately need for control of the Senate.

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Representative Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat representing Arizona’s 9th district, has stepped forward as the front-runner for her party in this race. She’s expected to cruise to the nomination during the August 28th primary. Sinema distinguishes herself from the national party – she emphasizes her own independence from Democrats across the nation, focusing on bipartisanship and doing what she believes is best. Sinema has even said she won’t vote for incumbent Majority Leader Chuck Schumer should she be elected, underlining her anti-establishment campaign. Though Sinema can find comparisons with figures such as Bernie Sanders in her independence from the establishment, she holds very moderate views – in line for convincing possible Republicans and Independents in Arizona to cast their votes for the Representative.

Congresswoman Martha McSally (R)

Although the Democrats have a presumptive nominee, a three-way race is being fought amongst the Republicans. The first candidate to announce was former State Senator Kelli Ward, a conservative along the lines, and even more conservative, than President Donald Trump. Though she was the first to announce, her base of support has been effectively split in two by the announcement of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Arpaio ran an immigrant detention facility in Southern Arizona. He lost reelection in 2016 and was even indicted for criminal contempt of the court during a trial on racial profiling. In 2017, President Trump pardoned him, and opened up a path for Arpaio to once more run for public office. Finally, in the lead is Republican Representative Martha McSally. McSally is far more moderate than her two opponents, and while polls have her ahead, there are still enough undecided voters that the race could shift to either Arpaio or Ward’s favor.

Regardless of who wins the nomination for the Republican Party, Sinema has a clear polling and fundraising lead in the race. In every poll released since April, Sinema is ahead of her Republican opponents. She performs best against Sheriff Arpaio, polling 52% to 61% of the vote. She similarly does well against Ward, receiving voter support in the high forties and low fifties. Sinema’s toughest competition would come from McSally; even though McSally trails Sinema in the polls, the margins are significantly closer than those with the other two candidates. In terms of fundraising, Sinema has $6,816,005 on hand, while McSally has $2,578,746 on hand. Both Ward and Arpaio have significantly less in cash on hand.

Like Nevada, this is only one of two plausible pick-ups for Democrats in the difficult Senate map. The race in Tennessee is promising, but will be an uphill battle for Bredesen. Realistically, Democrats will need to consolidate their efforts on Nevada and Arizona. Should they fail to win this seat, it will become nearly impossible to stave off any losses in seats the Democrats hold, and would be a disastrous set back in the difficult effort to retake the Senate.

The Race that Could Decide Control of the Senate

Republican Senator from Nevada, Dean Heller, is facing a difficult re-election campaign for the November 2018 midterms. As the only incumbent Republican Senator to be running in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Democrats have been eyeing Heller’s seat for a while. 

Nevada is politically a swing state, electing both Democrats and Republicans frequently to state offices in tight races. Most recently, in 2016, Clinton won the state by 2.4% of the vote - a narrow margin, but a clear indication of the state’s tight Democratic edge. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who won former Majority Leader Harry Reid’s Senate seat in 2016, also won her race by 2.4% against Representative Joe Heck (R). If there is a true “Blue Wave” in November, as polls and special elections have been indicating, even Heller’s incumbency may not stave off a loss. 

Sen. Dean Heller (R)

Dean Heller first won his seat in 2012 when Obama was running for reelection. While Obama won Nevada by about 6.7%, Heller won his race by only 1.2%, an incredibly close margin, but a testament to the strength of his candidacy. As of April 2018, however, Heller’s approval ratings have remained low. According to a Morning Consult poll, only 37% of registered Nevada voters approve of the incumbent, while 40% disapprove. Heller has also come under controversy due to what is deemed “flip-flopping” - holding one position, then abandoning it shortly after to appease a certain group. Heller has flip flopped on key issues such as healthcare, first claiming to oppose any GOP healthcare bill overturning The Affordable Care Act, then shortly after, voting in favor of its repeal. Heller’s controversies, the possibility of a strong “blue wave”, and Nevada’s center-left lean all pose a dangerous threat to Heller’s reelection, and play to the benefit of his opponent, Representative Jacky Rosen. 

Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D)

Jacky Rosen has represented the 3rd Congressional District of Nevada since 2016, winning by a little more than 1%, while Trump himself won the district by 1% in the same year. Despite having no political experience prior to the 2016 race, Majority Leader Harry Reid asked for Rosen to run in the 3rd District. Rosen holds moderate positions relative to more progressive members of the party, taking standard, center-left positions to appeal to voters in the swing state. 

Polling demonstrates the race is statistically tied, with Representative Rosen narrowly leading in a few polls. Unfortunately, the data is very limited for polling; more information will be produced and published in the following months as the race nears. In terms of fundraising, Heller has $4,920,720 on hand, while Rosen has $2,611,920 on hand. There is still plenty of time to fundraise for both candidates, but this measure will be critical in this toss-up race.

The Nevada Senate race has large repercussions in the battle for control of Congress. Should Democrats manage to pick this seat up, and maintain control of all other 49 seats, they would be in a strong position to pass through a greater Democratic agenda with bipartisan Republicans, such as moderate Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Control of the Senate would be critical for Democrats to block President Trump’s judicial nominees (Federal Circuits and possible Supreme Court vacancies) and disrupting his economic agenda. Should Democrats fail to win this seat, though, their chances of winning back the upper chamber of Congress grow very slim; only victories in all Democratic held seats and possible pick-ups in Arizona and Tennessee would offset this loss. This race is one of the most important ones for Democrats in 2018, and could very well potentially decide control of the chamber for the next several years.