The Race that Could Decide Control of the Senate

Republican Senator from Nevada, Dean Heller, is facing a difficult re-election campaign for the November 2018 midterms. As the only incumbent Republican Senator to be running in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Democrats have been eyeing Heller’s seat for a while. 

Nevada is politically a swing state, electing both Democrats and Republicans frequently to state offices in tight races. Most recently, in 2016, Clinton won the state by 2.4% of the vote - a narrow margin, but a clear indication of the state’s tight Democratic edge. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who won former Majority Leader Harry Reid’s Senate seat in 2016, also won her race by 2.4% against Representative Joe Heck (R). If there is a true “Blue Wave” in November, as polls and special elections have been indicating, even Heller’s incumbency may not stave off a loss. 

Sen. Dean Heller (R)

Dean Heller first won his seat in 2012 when Obama was running for reelection. While Obama won Nevada by about 6.7%, Heller won his race by only 1.2%, an incredibly close margin, but a testament to the strength of his candidacy. As of April 2018, however, Heller’s approval ratings have remained low. According to a Morning Consult poll, only 37% of registered Nevada voters approve of the incumbent, while 40% disapprove. Heller has also come under controversy due to what is deemed “flip-flopping” - holding one position, then abandoning it shortly after to appease a certain group. Heller has flip flopped on key issues such as healthcare, first claiming to oppose any GOP healthcare bill overturning The Affordable Care Act, then shortly after, voting in favor of its repeal. Heller’s controversies, the possibility of a strong “blue wave”, and Nevada’s center-left lean all pose a dangerous threat to Heller’s reelection, and play to the benefit of his opponent, Representative Jacky Rosen. 

Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D)

Jacky Rosen has represented the 3rd Congressional District of Nevada since 2016, winning by a little more than 1%, while Trump himself won the district by 1% in the same year. Despite having no political experience prior to the 2016 race, Majority Leader Harry Reid asked for Rosen to run in the 3rd District. Rosen holds moderate positions relative to more progressive members of the party, taking standard, center-left positions to appeal to voters in the swing state. 

Polling demonstrates the race is statistically tied, with Representative Rosen narrowly leading in a few polls. Unfortunately, the data is very limited for polling; more information will be produced and published in the following months as the race nears. In terms of fundraising, Heller has $4,920,720 on hand, while Rosen has $2,611,920 on hand. There is still plenty of time to fundraise for both candidates, but this measure will be critical in this toss-up race.

The Nevada Senate race has large repercussions in the battle for control of Congress. Should Democrats manage to pick this seat up, and maintain control of all other 49 seats, they would be in a strong position to pass through a greater Democratic agenda with bipartisan Republicans, such as moderate Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Control of the Senate would be critical for Democrats to block President Trump’s judicial nominees (Federal Circuits and possible Supreme Court vacancies) and disrupting his economic agenda. Should Democrats fail to win this seat, though, their chances of winning back the upper chamber of Congress grow very slim; only victories in all Democratic held seats and possible pick-ups in Arizona and Tennessee would offset this loss. This race is one of the most important ones for Democrats in 2018, and could very well potentially decide control of the chamber for the next several years.