Can A Democrat Win in Tennessee?

Senator Bob Corker (R-TN)

Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, one of the eight Republican senators up for reelection in the 2018 Midterms, made the momentous decision not to seek reelection on September 27th, 2017. The decision was most likely fueled by an uphill primary battle as well as antagonistic relations with President Trump. The stakes are particularly high in this race; incumbency is a very powerful tool in elections, especially for the Senate, and without an incumbent in Tennessee, a powerful Democratic challenger could potentially win the election in a very conservative state.

2000 Election Results (Wikipedia) 

Tennessee is a Republican stronghold, but it’s not as ruby red as other states, such as Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won in an upset against Roy Moore in December 2017. In Tennessee, it wasn’t until 2008 that Republicans were able to take both chambers of the State’s legislature since the Reconstruction era (1860s-1880s). The state is also home to notable Democrats, such as former Senator, Vice-President and later Presidential Nominee Al Gore. Even though contemporaneously the state was closest to voting for a Democrat in 2000 (narrowly voting for Bush over Gore in 2000 by 5%), the state has continuously chosen Republicans in both Presidential and state-wide elections. Republican Senator Alexander Lamar has served since 2003 and Senator Bob Corker has served since 2007, narrowly beating Democrat Harold Ford by 3% in the 2006 election (notably a “wave” election for Democrats). The only exception to a Republican winning in a Tennessee statewide race since the mid 90s is former Governor Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, who beat Republicans for the Governor’s mansion in 2002 and 2006. 

So why then is Senator Corker’s seat even in the conversation for the 2018 Midterms when states such as Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, and plenty others will be justifiably highly watched? The reason why Tennessee could flip in November is because popular former Governor Phil Bredesen is the front runner for the Democratic Party, and has a good chance of flipping the seat.

Governor Phil Bredesen 

Phil Bredesen is a native Tennessean who has spent a large amount of time in public service. Bredesen was elected Mayor of Nashville in 1991 and served for two terms until 1999. In 1994, Bredesen ran for Governor and won the Democratic primary, but lost in the general election to Republican Don Sundquist 54.3% to 44.7%. In 2002, Bredesen ran once again for Governor, pulling off a narrow victory with 51% of the vote. Bredesen’s term was so successful that he was elected to the Governorship a second time in 2006 with 68.6% of the vote, winning by a margin of almost 38.9%. There is no question Bredesen is one of the strongest candidates Democrats have been able to recruit this cycle to win in November. 


Bredesen is very likely to win his primary on August 2nd, and will most likely face Republican front-runner Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Blackburn has represented Tennessee’s 7th district since 2002, and contributed to Corker’s sudden withdrawal from the race; she posed a threat to the incumbent as a more conservative Trump ally than he.

As an update on how the race has been playing out so far, polling has shown a statistically tied race between Bredesen and Blackburn, with Bredesen taking a slight lead above the Republican. In terms of fundraising, Blackburn has $5,906,913 on hand, while Bredesen has $1,740,547 on hand. There is still plenty of time to fundraise for both candidates, but this measure will be critical in such a close race.

This race is similarly interesting in terms of campaigning traits. Blackburn has identified herself as an unabashed Trump supporter, while Bredesen has instead focused on his history of bipartisanship and considers himself a candidate who can bring people from across the aisle in an era of hyper-partisanship. If Bredesen pulls off a victory it will speak volumes not only in terms of the nation’s views of the Republican Party and Trump, but also on the state of partisan divides and electoral politics. If voters can cross party lines and support a candidate who prides themselves on working across the aisle and calming the “madness” of politics currently, then perhaps future voters will not look for ideological warfare and partisan extremes, but instead will seek out those who will operate in the name of bipartisanship.