The House: The Election As It Stands

With less than six weeks to go before the midterm elections, much has changed across the political map, and yet, at the same time, we’re exactly where we were six months ago. 

Generic Ballot, as of October 3rd, provided by Five Thirty Eight

The House of Representatives continues to look like the most likely chamber to flip in the 2018 midterms. Pundits, predictors, and race raters all agree the likelihood of a Democratic controlled House is significantly higher (around 70-80%) than a Republican controlled one. The specific reasoning for this lies in the generic ballot, performance of Democrats in special elections, a greater amount of contentious districts, and strong candidates against weaker incumbents. 

The generic ballot polling continues to give Democrats a large lead over Republicans. Aggregators, such as Nate Silver’s 538, give Democrats an approximate eight point lead over Republicans on the generic ballot - an incredibly strong position to be in with less than six weeks until the election. With that said, it’s very possible Democrats win the national popular vote but fail to clinch the 23 districts needed for control of the chamber. Individual polling of toss-up districts continues to show Republicans are in real danger of losing many of their seats, however, so the likelihood of Democrats winning the popular vote but not winning enough seats seems less likely as time goes on. 

Special election results, from 2017 and 2018, spell good news for the Democrats’ house chances. Donald Trump’s stable, yet dismal, approval ratings continue to reflect the majority of voters’ dissatisfaction with his performance thus far in office. His low approval rating is no doubt one of the major reasons why Democratic voters have been far likelier to turnout in special elections over the past two years, and it’s why Democrats have a good chance of flipping the House. Midterms are most often a measure of the people’s opinions on the President and his party. Should the opposing party, the Democrats in this case, beat out the Republicans, it will be an indication of the people’s growing discontent for the current administration. This was especially true in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, where the Republicans won more than 60 seats in the House in the former, then maintained control of the House and won the Senate in the latter. 

Congressional District 2016 Results

Democrats furthermore have the benefit of a greater number of contentious districts to target for this midterm cycle. Hillary Clinton outperformed Donald Trump in 23 Republican held House districts - the exact number needed for Democrats to regain the chamber. Though Democrats will not be able to win all these districts due to strong incumbents or weak challengers, many of them are most certainly in play and are expected to be flipped November 6th. Many more districts are open seats, eliminating any incumbency advantage in several toss-up and reach districts. 

Finally, strong candidates nominated by the Democratic party are putting traditionally Republican districts in play. These include Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s 8th district, Xochitl Small in New Mexico’s 2nd district, Richard Odeja in West Virgnia’s 3rd district, Paul Davis in Kansas’s 2nd district, and many others. These powerful candidates are beating their opponents in fundraising and on the airwaves with strong ads, and just might be strong enough to push some very Republican districts over the edge for this “wave year”. 

Should Democrats take control of the House, expect many of Trump’s desired policy proposals to be dead in the water, unless somehow compromise can be reached between both aisles . Not only would the House be crucial in stopping Trump’s agenda, but it will also allow Democrats to take reins of the House’s Russia investigation, and possibly even begin the process of impeachment. For both Democrats and Republicans, control of the House will be critical for each party’s respective goals to appease the electorate.