With less than six weeks to go before the midterm elections, lingering partisanship from the Kavanaugh debacle continues to threaten Democratic and Republican held seats, and while there is a great deal of uncertainty in how these races will turn out across the political map, it seems likelier and likelier there will be no change in the US Senate composition, that is, 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.
Broad Points
The Senate continues to look like there may be little to no change in its seat composition. Pundits agree the likelihood of a Democratic controlled Senate has about a one third chance of happening. Though Democrats lead on the generic ballot, and Trump has low levels of approval among voters, the Senate map puts Democrats at a structural disadvantage. Ten Democratic held Senate seats are in states Trump won in 2016, while only one Republican held seat is in a state Clinton won in 2016. Though the Republican majority in the Senate is a narrow two votes, Democrats have much more to lose in this Senate map, and little opportunity to win.
With that being said, I’m of the personal belief Democrats have a much better shot at taking back the Senate than most seem to credit Though the current map is perhaps one of the most difficult ones for a party such as the Democrats to defend in modern history, the political atmosphere is significantly partisan, and most indicators point to a safer environment for a Democrats. However, the battle for the Senate will be difficult, and the odds are against the Democrats.
The Democratic Held Seats
Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, & Pennsylvania
Trump narrowly won these states by razor thin margins in 2016, surprising many by winning the Democratic leaning “rust belt”. I’m lumping these races together not only because of their shared voter interests, but also because, despite holding Senate races in Trump states, these contests are most likely to be won by the Democratic incumbents. Senators Tammy Baldwin, Debbie Stabenow, Sherrod Brown, and Bob Casey are well liked incumbents, favored in a year where the environment is much more Democratic than usual. Not only are these candidates strong incumbents, but their opponents have failed to push these races into strong competition, leaving these Republicans sidelined in priority for NRSC (National Republican Senate Committee) funding. Polls continue to show strong leads for all these incumbents, and with strong fundraising advantages, it’s doubtful these states will flip for the Republicans. Expect all four Democrats to maintain their seats in these sates.
Montana
Montana’s Senate seat is occupied by Democrat Jon Tester. Though Montana voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by 20.5%, the state has a long history of electing Democrats to the Senate and to its Governorship. In the same election year, incumbent Governor Steve Bullock beat his Republican opponent by roughly four points. Tester’s opponent, State Auditor Matt Rosendale, has managed to catch up to Senator Tester, leaving only a slight lead for the Democratic Senator. However, Tester has significantly outraised his opponent, and can be expected to use this to bolster his lead closer to the election. Republicans hope to flip this seat, but Tester is a well-liked and strong incumbent who has faced competitive elections since 2006. Should all conditions hold stable until November 6th, expect Tester to hold this seat.
West Virginia
The epitome of coal-concerned voters, West Virginia voted to elect Donald Trump by over a whopping 42 points. Though Republicans now have a monopoly on the state’s electorate, many voters are former Democrats who will vote for the right candidate. Senator Joe Manchin, then, is the best democrat who could represent his state in the Senate. Moderate on many issues, he manages to stay very popular in his home state. Manchin is facing State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey who has failed to turn this race into a complete toss-up. Despite the state’s strong Republican lean, Manchin has outraised Morrissey and holds a continuous lead in almost every poll. While there is still the opportunity for this state to once more become a complete toss-up, as many thought earlier this year, expect Manchin to win in November 6th.
Indiana
Indiana is another traditionally Republican state that occasionally elects Democrats to statewide offices. Incumbent Joe Donnelly is one of those very Democrats, and his seat is yet another priority for Republicans. Indiana voted for President Trump by almost 19 points more than Hillary Clinton, making it an incredibly vulnerable seat to flip. However, Donnelly has made a name for himself as a moderate, even a conservative at times, in order to appeal to the overwhelming majority of Republicans in his state. The strategy has so far proven effective; in almost every poll, Donnelly leads over his opponent, Republican Mike Braun. Furthermore, Donnelly holds a large fundraising advantage over Braun which will be critical in the final weeks of the campaign. Though this is no doubt a tight race, I personally believe Donnelly will be able to overcome the deep Republican presence in the state and get elected to a third term to the Senate.
Missouri
Yet another state Trump won by close to 19%, Democratic Incumbent Claire McCaskill is running for a third term to represent Missouri in the US Senate. Though Missouri has quickly changed from a swing state to a solid Republican voting state, McCaskill is still a very powerful force. She managed to unseat Republican incumbent Jim Talent in 2006, and in 2012, she faced Representative Todd Atkin, notorious for his “legitimate rape” gaffe on the campaign. McCaskill ended up winning by over 15% in what should have been a very close race in due part to this scandal. This year, Senator McCaskill is facing State Attorney General Josh Hawley. Though McCaskill has significantly outraised Hawley, polls show this race is a very clear toss-up. I believe in the end Claire McCaskill will narrowly win reelection, only because of her incumbency advantage and significant amount of cash on hand that she can utilize to her advantage. Though Hawley is at a disadvantage in this race, he too can equally claim victory: do not expect McCaskill to win on November 6th.
Florida
The notorious swing state of Florida narrowly voted to elect Donald Trump by just over 1%, but by no means is this a Republican stronghold. Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson is fairly popular in the state, and without a strong opponent, he would be expected to win easily. Unfortunately for him, Governor Rick Scott is challenging him for the seat. Governor Rick Scott is quite popular in Florida, as well, though he only narrowly won his election in 2010 and in 2014 - two very strong years for the Republican party. Unlike most Democratic incumbents and challengers, Nelson does not have a fundraising advantage. Rick Scott, however, has a sizeable personal wealth he has claimed he will expend to help his candidacy. Though the race is hotly contested, Nelson has recently seen an uptick in polling numbers for his candidacy where he leads between 2-7 points. In the coming weeks, this race will even out and will continue to be a toss-up. I personally believe Nelson will be able to win, both considering his incumbency and the national environment, as well as the fact that Scott has only barely won races in years where Republicans should have strongly outperformed Democrats by quite a bit, but it’s far from certain.
North Dakota
Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for reelection in the Republican stronghold of North Dakota. President Trump won this state by 36% in 2016, and the seat has become a top priority for Republicans. Kevin Cramer, the sole representative of North Dakota in the House, has stepped up to challenge Heitkamp: a strong, yet still vulnerable incumbent. Recent polls show Senator Heitkamp lagging behind in the polls by around 4%, but the Democrat holds a clear fundraising advantage over her opponent. This is an incredibly tight race that, should polls continue to show a slight lead for Representative Cramer, will most likely fall to the Republicans. Heitkamp is an incredibly strong candidate, though, so don’t expect this seat to be a likely victory to the Republican just yet.
The Republican Held Seats
Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee
These are all Senate races where there is either an open seat or a Republican incumbent in Republican leaning states. They have been written about on this blog (refer to them below), and the state of those races has not changed very much. Polls and fundraising show Nevada as a complete toss-up, while polls indicate Arizona and Tennessee as lean Democratic states. All three races are competitive, but I would conjecture at least Arizona and Nevada will flip. Considering the political environment, Tennessee, with Bredesen at its helm, could also narrowly flip to the Democrats, though his lead has slipped and the Republican, Marsha Blackburn, is doing progressively better in polls.
Texas
Though it seems Texas has gotten a lot of attention recently, I’ve recognized Texas as toss-up ever since the 2016 Presidential results. The state is renowned for its strong Republican ties, yet it only voted for President Trump by 9 points over Hillary Clinton. Many recognize the changing demographics make it a prime pick-up for Democrats in the future, but very few believed Texas would become competitive so soon. Ordinarily, even with such a weak margin in electing Trump, it would not be considered a toss-up. However, Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has managed to blend charisma with progressive policy to create a very strong campaign against Ted Cruz. Though Senator Cruz could still be described as popular in his home state, he isn’t as popular as he should be, opening up a strong challenge from Representative O’Rourke. Recently, polling has tightened, giving Cruz a very narrow lead. Personally, I have predicted since 2017 that Texas will be either won by Cruz by two points, or O’Rourke will win by an incredibly narrow margin less than 1%. Polls seem to be indicating this is the shape of the race, and I expect it will remain like this until November 6th.
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